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El último decenio ha estado marcado por una serie de crisis económicas y eventos negativos, desde la crisis financiera mundial de 2008-2009, pasando por la crisis de la deuda soberana europea de 2010-2012, hasta los reajustes de los precios mundiales de los productos básicos de 2014-2016. A medida que se calman esas crisis y las persistentes tensiones que las acompañaban, la economía mundial se ha fortalecido, concediendo así un mayor margen de maniobra para reorientar las políticas hacia cuestiones de más largo plazo que frenan los avances en las dimensiones económica, social y ambiental del desarrollo sostenible.

Se estima que en 2017 el crecimiento económico mundial ha alcanzado el 3,0%, porcentaje que representa una fuerte aceleración frente al exiguo 2,4% de 2016 y constituye la mayor tasa de crecimiento mundial registrada desde 2011. Los indicadores del mercado laboral siguen mejorando en un amplio abanico de países, y alrededor de dos tercios de los países del mundo han crecido más en 2017 que en el año anterior. A escala mundial, se espera que en 2018 y 2019 el crecimiento se mantenga estable en el 3,0%.

La reciente aceleración que ha experimentado el producto mundial bruto responde principalmente al crecimiento más estable de varias economías desarrolladas, si bien Asia Oriental y Asia Meridional siguen siendo las regiones más dinámicas del mundo. Los mejoramientos cíclicos en la Argentina, el Brasil, la Federación de Rusia y Nigeria a medida que esas economías superaban la recesión también explican aproximadamente un tercio del aumento de la tasa de crecimiento mundial entre 2016 y 2017. No obstante, los beneficios económicos de los últimos años continúan presentando una distribución desigual por países y regiones, y en muchas partes del mundo aún no se ha conseguido que la economía vuelva a crecer a tasas vigorosas. Las perspectivas económicas siguen siendo sombrías para muchos exportadores de productos básicos, lo que subraya la vulnerabilidad a los ciclos de expansión y contracción de los países que dependen en exceso de un número reducido de recursos naturales. Además, el potencial de la economía mundial a más largo plazo arrastra el lastre del prolongado período de baja inversión y débil crecimiento de la productividad que sucedió a la crisis financiera mundial.

En general, las condiciones para la inversión han mejorado en un contexto de baja inestabilidad financiera, menor debilidad del sector bancario, recuperación de algunos sectores de productos básicos y mejores perspectivas macroeconómicas mundiales. Los costos de financiación por lo general siguen siendo bajos y los diferenciales han disminuido en muchos mercados emergentes como consecuencia del descenso de las primas de riesgo. Todo ello ha contribuido a incrementar la entrada de corrientes de capital en los mercados emergentes, incluido el aumento de los préstamos transfronterizos, y a fortalecer la expansión del crédito en las economías desarrolladas y en desarrollo.

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“You have a large share of the population who are struggling to meet their financial obligations and has seen modest to no improvement,” says UBS Credit Strategist Stephen Caprio.

About 76 million U.S. households make up the bottom 60% of income earners, with take-home pay of $65,000 or less. Of that group, about a third were "stressed" in 2016, UBS says, near the highest level since the mid-1990s.UBS defines 'stressed' Americans as those whose financial obligations —such as mortgages, rent, auto loans and leases, and credit card bills —exceed 30% of their income and who don’t have enough cash and other assets to pay their bills for six months in the event of a layoff or other shock. Such people are far more likely to eventually fall behind on loans and rein in spending.

Even more troubling: About 25 million low-income households that earn $23,000 or less face growing burdens, with nearly half of that bottom 20% of income earners stressed in 2016, up from 45% in 2013, UBS figures show.

By comparison, the burden for people at higher income levels has been getting lighter. Only 3.6% of households in the top 40% of income earners were stressed in 2016, down from 4.5% in 2013, UBS figures show, with many enjoying both low mortgage rates and soaring stock prices.

A sign advertises an apartment for rent along a row of brownstone townhouses in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.

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Alejandra Mejia and two of her children, Nicole,6, and Yatziri, 13.

Mejia, 31, and her three children live in a room in a house for victims of domestic violence for $680 a month. Shecan’t afford an apartment in San Jose, Calif., where the rent, according to Rent Café, averages $2,616. She earns about $300 driving about 40 hours a week for Lyft and another $70 putting in five hours weekly as a manager at McDonald’s.

Mejia, who receives $200 a month in food stamps, says she’s frustrated she can’t get more hours at McDonald’s. “It’s very difficult,” she says, adding that she can’t afford a car or new clothes for her children and has no savings. She has to leasea car from Lyft to drivefor the ride-hailing service.

The UBS studyraises questions about a widely touted economic milestone: thathousehold debt broadly hascome down as the economy recovers from the recession of 2007-09.After Americans borrowed heavily duringthe housing and credit bubbles of the mid-2000s, many haveshaved their debtby living frugallyand, in some cases, defaulting.

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